Changes in climate and biodiversity are mutually reinforcing

A sustainable society requires both a stable climate and a robust natural environment. Problems relating to climate change and biodiversity are mutually reinforcing and must therefore be viewed as a whole.

The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly more apparent, and there are many indications that climate scientists have been overly cautious in their conclusions. Species are also disappearing at a faster rate and in greater numbers than previously thought, as a result of climate change as well as due to pollution and human overexploitation and habitat destruction. Entire ecosystems are in real danger of being dramatically altered. Profound societal changes will be crucial over the next decade.

Research shows that climate change and loss of biodiversity are both closely linked and mutually reinforcing. However, climate change and loss of biodiversity are being addressed by two different UN panels: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC https://www.ipcc.ch/) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES https://ipbes.net/). This fragmentation complicates the sustainable management of the earth’s resources. The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters has taken steps to mitigate this by collectively focusing on climate and biodiversity.

Changes in climate and biodiversity are closely linked to population growth and overexploitation of natural resources. The strong link between changes in the climate and biodiversity reinforces the problems we are currently experiencing and makes it extremely difficult to restructure the use of resources at both a local and global level. For example, research shows that if one-fifth of the present global energy consumption (which is presently largely covered by fossil fuels), is to be covered by biofuels, about half of all global agricultural land and forest areas would have to be used for this purpose. This is a dramatic demonstration of the link between climate change and biodiversity. The solutions need to address both concerns simultaneously.

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) recently provided a summary of the research from recent decades into biodiversity and ecosystem services and concluded that loss of habitat is the most important reason for why an increasing number of species are becoming extinct. This involves many reinforcing effects, one of which is that the earth’s ability to absorb and store carbon dioxide is reduced when species are lost and ecosystems are degraded.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found that climate change has direct damaging consequences for ecosystems, particularly in the form of what were once rare extreme weather events such as droughts, floods or storms becoming increasingly more frequent. More gradual processes such as sea level rises, desertification and the spread of invasive species and diseases are also intensifying the loss of indigenous species and the degradation of ecosystems.

It is difficult for the research community to estimate such reinforcing effects, and many of the effects will likely come as unpleasant surprises. Avoiding these will require extensive interdisciplinary research that can lead the way towards sustainable management of the earth's resources. We therefore require much stronger links between discussions regarding the climate and biodiversity than what is presently the case. There is urgent need for a new joint UN panel that can link and integrate the work of the IPBES and IPCC. This would result in major and important synergies both for the research community and society as a whole. This would enable us to seriously address the major challenges that we are facing.

Hans Petter Graver (President of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters) and Nils Chr. Stenseth (Chair of the Academy’s Committee’ on Climate, Environment and Resources).